Recent reports have sent shockwaves through the international community as Bhutan—often called the “Land of Happiness” and known for its Gross National Happiness philosophy—has reportedly been included on a draft “Red List” alongside countries like North Korea, Iran, and Syria in Trump’s proposed travel restrictions. This development raises important questions: Why would this peaceful Buddhist kingdom be targeted with such severe restrictions? The answer appears to lie in visa overstay rates and security vetting concerns, according to recently published Department of Homeland Security data.
The Surprising Red-List Inclusion
According to recent reporting by The New York Times and other major outlets, the Trump administration is drafting a three-tiered approach to travel restrictions affecting 41 countries. The most severe “Red List” category would completely bar citizens from entering the United States and includes 11 nations:
- Afghanistan
- Bhutan
- Cuba
- Iran
- Libya
- North Korea
- Somalia
- Sudan
- Syria
- Venezuela
- Yemen
While most countries on this list have well-documented tensions with the United States, Bhutan’s inclusion stands as a puzzling outlier. As The New York Times noted, “the reason several others were included was not immediately clear. Bhutan, for example, was proposed for an absolute ban on entry. The small Buddhist and Hindu country is sandwiched between China and India, neither of which were on any of the draft lists.”
Visa Overstay Data Statistics
The primary justification for these restrictions appears to be visa overstay rates, with the Trump administration focusing on countries whose nationals have demonstrated patterns of remaining in the US beyond their authorized periods of stay.
Understanding the DHS Overstay Report
The Department of Homeland Security’s Entry/Exit Overstay Report for Fiscal Year 2023, published on August 5, 2024, provides the statistical foundation for these proposed restrictions. According to this comprehensive report:
- In FY 2023, there were 39,005,712 expected departures, a 67.8% increase from FY 2022
- The overall total overstay rate was 1.45% (565,155 overstay events)
- A total of 510,363 individuals were classified as “Suspected In-Country Overstays,” representing 1.31% of expected departures.
While the DHS report presents overstay rates by country, Bhutan’s specific figures aren’t prominently highlighted in the main summary. However, historical data reveals a consistent pattern of overstay concerns involving Bhutanese nationals, as shown below.
In 2022, out of the 295 Bhutanese that were supposed to depart, 112 didn't. In 2023, out of 371 Bhutanese that were supposed to depart, 72 people overstayed.
Here’s a comparative summary of Bhutan’s overstay rates across visa categories for both 2022 and 2023:
| Year | Visa Category | Expected Departures | Total Overstays | Total Overstay Rate | Suspected In-Country Overstay Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Business or Pleasure (B1/B2) | 113 | 68 | 60.18% | 58.41% |
| 2022 | Students and Exchange Visitors (F, M, J) | 155 | 34 | 21.94% | 18.71% |
| 2022 | Other Nonimmigrant Classes | 27 | 10 | 37.04% | 37.04% |
| 2023 | Business or Pleasure (B1/B2) | 181 | 23 | 12.71% | 12.15% |
| 2023 | Students and Exchange Visitors (F, M, J) | 180 | 48 | 26.67% | 24.44% |
| 2023 | Other Nonimmigrant Classes | 10 | 1 | 10.00% | 10.00% |
This table highlights the differences in overstay rates for Bhutanese travelers in various visa categories between 2022 and 2023. While it has certainly come down, its still high given the 10% threshold.
From a compliance perspective, the data highlights both improvements and ongoing challenges in visa overstay rates across different categories. The Business or Pleasure (B1/B2) visa category saw a significant increase in compliance, with the overstay rate dropping from 60.18% in 2022 to 12.71% in 2023. This suggests more effective enforcement measures, better tracking, or improved adherence to departure regulations. Similarly, Other Nonimmigrant Classes also demonstrated a substantial rise in compliance, as the overstay rate declined from 37.04% to 10.00% over the same period.
However, non-compliance remains an issue among Students and Exchange Visitors (F, M, J) visas, where the overstay rate increased from 21.94% in 2022 to 26.67% in 2023. This indicates potential difficulties in ensuring timely departures for students, possibly due to academic program extensions, post-graduation transitions, or administrative hurdles.
Historical Pattern of Bhutanese Overstays
Data from the US Department of Homeland Security shows that 200 Bhutanese were apprehended for residing illegally in the USA between 2013 and 2022. The year-by-year breakdown reveals:
- 2013: 7 illegal residents
- 2014: 12 illegal residents
- 2015: 24 illegal residents
- 2016: 22 illegal residents
- 2017: 30 illegal residents
- 2018: 26 illegal residents
- 2019: 33 illegal residents
- 2020: 14 illegal residents
- 2021: 15 illegal residents
- 2022: 17 illegal residents
Additionally, the US Embassy in Delhi reported that in 2007, 22 visa recipients had overstayed and 33 had provided incorrect contact information—presumably with the intention to overstay. That same report indicated 14 Bhutanese visitors applied to become permanent residents while another 20 applied to extend their visas.
Previous Targeting Based on Overstay Rates
This isn’t the first time Bhutan has been identified for potential immigration restrictions due to overstay concerns. In 2020, the Trump administration implemented a rule requiring visitors from countries with overstay rates exceeding 10% to post bonds of up to $15,000 before entering the United States.
A 2019 DHS report identified Bhutan as one of the countries with overstay rates exceeding this 10% threshold, alongside nations like Chad (44.94%), Djibouti (37.91%), Mauritania (30.49%), Iran (21.64%), and Afghanistan (11.99%).
Broader Context of the Proposed Ban
The current proposed restrictions stem from an executive order issued by President Trump on January 20, 2025, which mandates heightened security screening for foreign nationals seeking entry to the US. The order required various cabinet departments to identify countries “for which vetting and screening information is so deficient as to warrant a partial or full suspension on the admission of nationals from those countries”.
According to reports, the State Department’s Bureau of Consular Affairs has taken the lead on this initiative, with support from the Justice and Homeland Security Departments and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
It’s important to note that the situation remains fluid. While The New York Times reported seeing a draft list with Bhutan in the “Red” category for complete bans, Reuters later reported seeing a draft showing Bhutan in the “Yellow” category—countries recommended for a partial suspension if they don’t address deficiencies.
A US official speaking anonymously emphasized that changes to the list are likely before it reaches final approval from the administration and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Implications for Bhutanese Travelers and US-Bhutan Relations
If implemented as reported, this ban would represent a significant hardship for Bhutanese citizens seeking to visit, study, or work in the United States. It would also mark an unusual diplomatic stance toward a nation that has maintained generally positive, if limited, relations with the US.
The Kingdom of Bhutan, which only opened to international tourism in the 1970s, has long maintained careful control over visitors through its “high value, low volume” tourism policy. Ironically, while Bhutan strictly regulates foreign entry, its citizens may soon face even stricter limitations on travel to the United States.
What’s Next?
As the Trump administration finalizes its travel restriction policies, many questions remain about Bhutan’s ultimate placement and the diplomatic implications of such restrictions. Officials have indicated the list was developed several weeks ago and that “changes were likely by the time it reached the White House”.
For prospective Bhutanese travelers to the United States, the coming weeks will be crucial as the administration makes its final determinations on which countries will face complete bans, partial restrictions, or warnings to improve security cooperation.
What’s clear is that visa overstay rates have become a central consideration in US immigration policy under the Trump administration, with even small, peaceful nations like Bhutan potentially facing significant consequences based on these statistics.
This is a developing story, and we will continue to provide updates as the situation evolves.
